An Analysis of Trump’s Voting Base

There are three types of citizens who voted for Donald Trump in 2016:  1) Right wingers 2) Republicans and 3) Independent voters.

• Right Wingers:  This group is also referred to as evangelical Christians, social conservatives, Fox News viewers, white nationalists and white supremacists. These are the president’s staunchest allies and they are energized by his fiery rhetoric. This voting bloc opposes abortion, immigration, gay marriage, minority rights, gun control, taxes and environmental protections. These voters will come out in force for Trump in 2020, unless he softens his tone or abandons the policies they favor. These are Trump’s “bread and butter” voters.
• Republicans:  While an overwhelming majority of right wingers vote Republican, not all Republicans are right wingers. While a majority of Republicans tend to be conservative, a large number are less extreme than their right-wing counterparts. Perhaps they favor some gun control, oppose only illegal immigration, want basic environmental protections and are not opposed to gay marriage. Basically, they are more moderate in their ideology and rhetoric than the incumbent president. Many hard core Trump-supporters refer to this group of people as RINO’s (Republican in Name Only). While the majority of this group may still vote for Trump in 2020 because of his tax cuts, conservative appointments to the Supreme Court and his tough talk on illegal immigration, a significant segment of this bloc can be expected to abandon the president in the next election. On the one hand, the president’s polarizing rhetoric is off-putting for a large segment of Republicans. Many Republican politicians have either condemned the president, or simply announced they are quitting politics altogether because they feel alienated by the current polarized political landscape. Among the most prominent Republicans leaving political life are former House Speaker Paul Ryan and Congressmen Trey Gowdy and Jason Chaffetz, among others. On the other hand, despite the president’s tough-talk, he has not delivered on his most significant promises such as repealing and replacing Obamacare, building a border wall at Mexico’s expense and resolving national security issues related to North Korea, Iran and Venezuela. Essentially, President Trump’s bark is louder than his bite for this group of Republicans. Expect a significant number of defections during the 2020 elections from this group. At the very least, many Republicans might stay home on election day 2020.
• Independents:  This group mostly votes with their pocket books. Basically, they want a respectful job, a stable income, safe neighborhoods, personal privacy rights, low taxes on the working and middle classes, civility, respect and fairness. Essentially, independent voters want a compassionate meritocracy and a “live and let live” society. Independents voted for President George H.W. Bush in 2004, yet voted twice for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then moved over to the Trump camp in 2016. Basically, they are swing voters. Expect a large number of independents to defect in 2020. The reasons for defections will be the president’s extreme and alienating rhetoric, failure to replace Obamacare with a better system that protects pre-existing conditions, failure to protect the border and resolve the illegal immigration problem, failure to get an infrastructure bill to resolve the nation’s ailing roads and bridges, and concern about the ballooning national debt. Additionally, many members of this group, especially blue-collar workers and farmers, have been adversely affected by Trump’s trade war with China. Expect a large number of these independents/swing voters to switch to the Democrats in 2020 and possibly vote Trump out of office.