The contemporary American political landscape has never been so fragmented and polarized as it is in 2020. Even during the Vietnam War era, Americans were divided mostly into only two camps: pro-military conservatives and anti-war liberals.
Today, the American public is split into four major political segments:
- Traditional Democrats: Socially, culturally and fiscally liberal, Democrats favor policies emphasizing personal freedoms, gun-control, big government, wealth redistribution, judicial activism, cultural diversity and a more egalitarian society.
– - Traditional Republicans: Socially and fiscally conservative, Republicans support policies championing religious freedoms, community morals, gun-rights, low taxes, free-trade, small government, judicial literalism and a merit-based society.
– - Moderates/Swing Voters: As the name suggests, these are people who are more flexible and balanced in their political and economic views. An increasing number of American moderates are socially liberal (democrat) and fiscally conservative (republican). This group of voters wants a tolerant “live and let live” society, but also believes that working individuals should be able to keep most of their hard-earned money from big government and the bloated bureaucracy. Many moderates often feel alienated by the two major political parties and will shift their voting loyalties in accordance to their own personal well-being (pocket book voters) and the popularity and charisma of the candidates, regardless of party-affiliation.
– - Populists: The definition of populism is very wide and subjective. However, a growing number of Americans, especially white Americans in rural communities, poorer suburbs and Southern States are energized by “popular” policies, emphasizing the economic well-being of working class citizens, identity politics, racial nationalism and religious fundamentalism. This group of voters harbors deep grievances and feels they are being ignored and belittled by other social groups (the elite, minorities, immigrants, atheists’, liberals, etc.). Unlike moderates, many populists are proponents of socially conservative policies, but favor some economically progressive measures such as trade protectionism and government aid to farmers and other working-class groups. Populists also tend to lean towards an isolationist/”America First” foreign policy. Populists have become a pillar of President Donald Trump’s political base and a major force in the Republican Party. Populists regularly clash with traditional conservatives, especially regarding matters related to foreign policy, budget deficits and meritocracy.
Are Two Parties Enough for America’s Fragmented Body Politic?
Increasingly, we are witnessing how both political parties are straining to include a growing number of voters with divergent political beliefs under their umbrella.
On the democratic side, a new generation of assertive progressives such as Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC), Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib are very open and transparent about their plans to wrest control of their party from the aging establishment represented by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, among others.
However, the intra-party strain is particularly pronounced on the republican side. There is a fierce war for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. The war is between traditional conservatives on the one hand, and populists on the other. We see this divide everywhere. Traditional republican pundits such as George Will, David Frum and Bill Kristol are often at odds with populist/conservative figures such as Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Sean Hannity. We also see this conflict between respected republican politicians such as Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse, John Kasich and Larry Hogan on one side, versus Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz and Kevin McCarthy on the other.
The intra-party ideological and policy differences among republicans is so intense and the rhetoric so devisive that it’s often easy to forget that the sparring figures are on the same team.
Many pundits believe the battle between populists and traditional conservatives will continue long after Donald Trump leaves office. However, how long can both sides coexist under the same GOP umbrella? If a prominent figure such as Donald Trump, Matt Gaetz, Don Trump Jr. or Marjorie Taylor Greene decide they cannot sufficiently challenge the GOP establishment from within, they may decide to band together and form a third political party. Populists, who are zealously loyal to their leaders, may decide to follow suit.
In the unlikely event that populist leaders will again gain control of the Republican Party, then it’s reasonable to think that some/many establishment republicans will either create their own party or form an alliance with moderate democrats.
Either way, it seems that Donald Trump has caused a seismic shift in the American political landscape, a shift that will endure long after he’s left office.