The congressional midterm elections are less than 3-months away. A lot is at stake for the Democrats, Republicans, Donald Trump and the nation as a whole. Control of Congress will be critical for several reasons, including:
- Disrupting the GOP Legislative Agenda: Despite control of both chambers of Congress, the GOP and President Trump have failed to accomplish two major legislative promises: A border wall with Mexico and the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. The Republicans would definitely like to give both measures another shot. However, a victory by the Democrats would essentially spell a humiliating defeat of any attempts by the GOP and President Trump to deliver on their two most important promises to their core voters.
- Impeaching President Trump: The Democrats have already decided they want to impeach President Trump regardless of whatever Special Counsel Robert Mueller finds. Even if no collusion is found between the 2016 Trump Campaign and Russia, Democrats such as Dianne Feinstein have already stated that enough evidence already exists to impeach the president on charges of obstruction of justice. A majority in the House of Representatives would enable the Democrats to draft articles of impeachment. An absolute majority in the Senate (66 seats) could convict the president and force his removal from office.
- Supreme Court Vacancies: President Trump has already successfully selected a conservative Judge to the Supreme Court in the person of Justice Neil Gorsuch. Trump will all but certainly seat Judge Brett Kavanaugh before the midterm elections. However, it is possible that another Supreme Court seat will become vacant within the next two years. Most observers point to the seat of 85-year old Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg because of her frail health. If so, President Trump will get an opportunity to transform the nation’s highest court to a firmly conservative one, which will have profound implications on American political life. Alternatively, a Democratic victory would compel President Trump to select only moderate candidates for any additional vacancies on the Supreme Court.
Despite a strong economy and record low unemployment, many political observers believe the Democrats have a real shot at regaining control of both chambers of Congress. President Trump himself seems to have given the Democrats various opportunities to win back Congress. The president’s numerous missteps’, include:
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The controversy over separating adult asylum seekers from their children and placing minors in detention centers;
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A disastrous press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin during which the president appeared to have sided with an adversarial dictator over U.S. law enforcement;
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The president’s statements during the racially-charged riots in Charlottesville, Virginia in which he seemed to defend White Supremacists;
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The president has disappointed his conservative base by failing to build a border wall or repeal and replace Obamacare; and
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Trump has further alienated many in the evangelical community after details emerged of his probable extramarital affair with porn star Stormy Daniels.
However, despite the president’s various missteps’ and the ongoing Mueller investigation, the Democrats seem to be shooting themselves in the foot. Instead of offering a clear alternative message to that of the GOP and President Trump, the Democrat’s only clear message is that they are anti-Trump. While the anti-Trump focus appeals to their core constituents, it may not work with independent voters, who are needed to tilt general elections in their favor.
Among the issues that Democrats need to articulate a clearer position on:
- Immigration Reform: It is not enough for Democrats to say they’re against detention centers or a border wall. The fact is that a sizeable number of Americans want some sort of border control to regulate and organize the inflow of immigrants, especially across the southern border with Mexico. Americans are especially dismayed by the seemingly unregulated flow of illegal criminals, drug dealers and gangsters through the nation’s porous borders. Additionally, the efforts of some Democrats to abolish ICE and offer unconditional sanctuary to illegal immigrants could draw the ire of a significant number of independent voters.
- Healthcare Reform 2.0: While Obamacare has successfully expanded coverage for millions of previously uninsured Americans and removed coverage restrictions for people with pre-existing conditions, the initiative has also caused insurance premiums to increase for millions of others and has forced countless patients to change their primary care physicians. In essence, several aspects of Obamacare need to be re-addressed. The Democrats need to acknowledge that a lot of Americans aren’t happy with the nation’s healthcare system and want it fixed.
- Rule of Law: There is a growing sense among many independent Americans that government is siding with many disadvantaged segments of the population (minorities, illegal immigrants, homeless, etc.) at the expense of hard-working and law-abiding Citizens. The Democrats must strike a better balance between their compassion for underprivileged groups and fairness to the majority of working and middle-class Americans.
President Trump’s gaffes and missteps are a great gift to the Democratic party ahead of November’s midterm elections. However, the Democrats should not be complacent and assume they will automatically win in November against the backdrop of a controversial president. The Democrats should not take the support of independent voters for granted. The last time they did, Donald Trump was elected president.