It’s no secret that President Trump is extremely unpopular among most Democrats and even a significant number of establishment Republicans.
With that said, many of the president’s opponents are anxiously awaiting the upcoming midterm congressional elections in November 2018, in hope that the Democrats will win enough seats to gain control of the House and Senate and start impeachment proceedings to unseat the 45th president. However, many anti-Trumpers may bitterly discover that, even control of both chambers of Congress is insufficient to remove the President from office, or even prevent him from serving a second term.
Impeachment vs. Removal From Office
It is important to understand that there exists a clear distinction between impeaching a president versus removing him from office.
According to Article I, section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, “The House of Representatives… shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.” That means that the charges or articles must be brought in the House and can pass with a simple majority. Therefore, assuming the Democrats gain control of the House of Representative in November, they can garner enough votes to impeach the President.
However, for a president to actually be removed from office, a trial would need to be undertaken in the Senate, which would need 67 votes to convict the president. According to (Article I, section 3) “When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present”.
To date, two U.S. Presidents have been impeached (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton). However, no president has ever been removed from office. Presidents Johnson and Clinton survived impeachment because there weren’t enough votes in the Senate to convict. Nixon, on the other hand, sensing an imminent impeachment, chose to resign.
Trump’s Future
When trying to forecast President Trump’s future, it comes down to basic math. The Democrats have 49 seats in the Senate. There are 33 Senate seats that will be contested in 2018. Will the Democrats win at least 18 more Senate seats? If so, the Democrats can impeach and remove Donald Trump from office. If not, Trump survives and gets to run for office again in 2020.
While reelecting an impeached president is unprecedented and seems very unlikely, it is still possible. The reelection possibility is especially plausible given the president’s fiercely loyal electoral base, which never hesitates to express its disdain for the current political establishment (Democrat and Republican).
This does not mean the Democrats can’t put the brakes on President Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his term. A Democratic win of either chamber of Congress will effectively stop the president from building a border wall, ending Obamacare, or overhauling the nation’s immigration policy. However, it does not mean the Democrats can automatically remove him from office.